How to Set Up a Prediction Market Company in 2026 — Licensing, Technology, Liquidity and the $44 Billion Opportunity

1. The $44 Billion Wake-Up Call

The numbers no longer require explanation — they speak for themselves. In 2025, Kalshi recorded $43.1 billion in notional trading volume, a 2,100% increase from the year before. Polymarket processed $33.4 billion, making the two platforms' combined 2025 volume more than $76 billion. For context, that's a market that barely existed in any structured form five years ago.

The 2024 US presidential election was the inflection point — millions of users discovered that prediction markets were more accurate, more real-time, and more intellectually engaging than polls. Then the sports flywheel kicked in. Then the institutional money arrived.

In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange — the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange — announced a $2 billion commitment to Polymarket, valuing it at $9 billion and acquiring exclusive global distribution rights to its event-driven data. By March 2026, ICE completed the full commitment with a final $600 million tranche. In February 2026, ICE launched its Polymarket Signals and Sentiment tool for institutional clients — prediction market data is now on the same terminals used by hedge fund managers and central banks.

Meanwhile, Kalshi raised $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation in March 2026, doubling its December 2025 valuation in three months. On Super Bowl Sunday in February 2026, Kalshi processed $871 million in a single day, with total game-related markets exceeding $1 billion.

Analysts at Citizens estimate the industry's annual revenue run rate is now around $2 billion. Devin Ryan's team projects it could quadruple. Bank of America published a report on April 9, 2026 confirming weekly prediction market volume was up 4% week-over-week, with Kalshi commanding 89% of the US regulated market. The irony? The same week these numbers came out, three US states were trying to ban Kalshi. The regulatory battlefield is real — but so is the commercial opportunity.

2. Kalshi, Robinhood, Polymarket: The Partnerships Reshaping the Industry

As the first federally regulated prediction market exchange in the United States, Kalshi has redefined how traders interact with real-world events by offering Event Contracts — tradable positions linked to geopolitical, economic, and social outcomes. What began as a niche concept has now become a global benchmark, with major platforms such as Robinhood and Webull integrating Kalshi's market infrastructure directly into their trading ecosystems. At Zitadelle AG, we are already seeing a wave of interest from European brokers, offshore platforms, and fintech founders seeking licensing pathways, regulatory structuring, and technology frameworks to build Kalshi-style platforms internationally.

Robinhood's trajectory tells the story best. The platform launched a dedicated Prediction Markets Hub in early 2026 and saw its stock rally more than 200% in 2025 — analysts at Citizens estimate prediction markets now account for roughly 10% of Robinhood's revenue. But Robinhood didn't stop at distribution: in late 2025 it announced the acquisition of MIAXdx, a CFTC-registered designated contract market and clearing organization, in a joint venture with Susquehanna. That acquisition — expected to close Q1 2026 — effectively makes Robinhood a prediction market exchange operator in its own right, not just a broker.

Kalshi had 20 brokers in its distribution pipeline as of late 2025. Webull already brokers Kalshi contracts. Coinbase was reportedly in the pipeline. DraftKings acquired the Railbird exchange. FanDuel partnered with CME Group. The NHL became the first major US sports league to license its trademarks to prediction markets — partnering with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Then MLB and MLS joined.

Meanwhile, Gibraltar-licensed Predict Street became the first prediction market licensed in Europe and is FIFA's official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup. The international race is on.

3. The Regulatory Battlefield: Finance vs. Gambling vs. Something Else

A federal appeals court in New Jersey ruled in October 2024 that the CFTC had exceeded its authority by blocking Kalshi's election contracts. That ruling opened the door for political betting in the US. But the real regulatory story is messier.

As of April 2026, at least 10 US states have introduced legislation to explicitly ban political prediction markets or event contracts. Georgia passed HB 1 in February 2026 making it a felony to bet on political races. Montana and New Jersey have pending bills. The American Gaming Association is lobbying hard — and not in favor of prediction markets. The AGA sees Kalshi as an unlicensed threat to state-regulated sports betting monopolies.

Meanwhile, the CFTC itself is in flux. The agency's acting chair initially supported broader event contract approval, but political pressure has created a more cautious stance. The core legal question remains unresolved: are prediction markets derivatives, gambling, or a novel third category?

For international operators, the regulatory clarity offshore is paradoxically greater than in the US itself. Gibraltar, Malta, and Curaçao have established frameworks. The Cayman Islands allows unlicensed operation for non-US, non-Cayman residents. And EU regulators are still watching — MiCA doesn't cover prediction markets directly, but national gambling regulators do.

4. Technical Architecture: What You Actually Need to Build

A prediction market platform requires five core components:

• Order Matching Engine: The heart of the exchange — matches buy and sell orders for event contracts in real-time.
• Market Maker / AMM System: Automated market makers provide liquidity and continuous pricing. Polymarket uses an AMM; Kalshi uses a central limit order book with designated market makers.
• Liquidity Pool Management: Seed capital, liquidity provider incentives, and risk management tools.
• Settlement and Clearing: Determines outcomes, settles contracts, manages margin and collateral. Requires trusted oracles or official data feeds.
• Compliance and KYC/AML: Identity verification, transaction monitoring, regulatory reporting. Varies by jurisdiction.

White-label platforms exist. Azuro, Thales, and several unnamed B2B providers offer turnkey prediction market infrastructure. Build vs. buy depends on your regulatory strategy and capital.

5. Licensing Options for International Operators

For operators targeting non-US markets, several licensing pathways exist:

6. What Zitadelle AG Can Do

Zitadelle AG provides the following for prediction market operators:

• Licensing advisory: Gibraltar, Malta, Curaçao, Cayman Islands, and other jurisdictions.
• Platform sourcing: Introductions to white-label prediction market technology providers.
• Liquidity connections: Introductions to market makers and liquidity providers.
• Corporate structuring: Holding companies, operating entities, and compliance structures.
• Ongoing compliance: AML/KYC frameworks, regulatory reporting, and risk management.

7. The Gossip Desk

A few items that didn't fit elsewhere but matter:

• Donald Trump Jr. is a paid adviser to Kalshi and an investor in Polymarket.
• The CEOs of Kalshi and Polymarket both invested in 5c(c) Capital, a $35 million VC fund targeting prediction market infrastructure startups.
• Robinhood's prediction markets revenue is now estimated at roughly 10% of total revenue.
• The NHL, MLB, and MLS have all licensed their trademarks to prediction market operators.
• Predict Street (Gibraltar) is FIFA's official prediction market partner for the 2026 World Cup.
• ICE's Polymarket data is now available on Bloomberg and Refinitiv terminals.

8. Why Move Now

The US market is consolidating fast. Kalshi, Robinhood, and the DraftKings/FanDuel axis will likely dominate domestically. But internationally, the field is wide open. European regulation is still forming. Asian markets are untapped. LatAm, Africa, and the Middle East have no established players.

The window to build — to get licensed, launch, and establish market position before the majors arrive — is 12-24 months. Maybe less. This is the moment.